We looked at a national sample of 9,000 young adults whose information is publicly available from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort. They were first interviewed in 1997 when they were 12 to 16 years old and have been interviewed every year since. We used data through 2011, when they were 26 to 30 years old.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn general, if you have children, you should strive to be in a stable partnership.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\nThe probability that young adults (ages 18 to 30) will have a child outside marriage is highest in their early to mid-twenties. We wanted to know whether members of the study cohort got married before having their first child.<\/p>\n
We added US census data on household income inequality in the area where each person lived, taking into account variation between highest and lowest household incomes. Using statistical models, we tried to tease out causal effects of income equality on marital status before a first child\u2019s birth.<\/p>\n
We also factored in another piece of information gleaned from census data\u2014the prevalence of middle-skill jobs (for example, sales clerk, security guard, machine operator, or bus driver). We wondered if the availability of decent jobs for people without a university education affects whether people marry before starting families. We found that young adults who live in areas with better job opportunities are more likely to marry before having their first child. Much of the apparent effect of household income inequality on first births seems to be accounted for by the prevalence of decent jobs for high school graduates. Thus economic considerations influence people\u2019s decisions to have a child outside of marriage.<\/p>\n
High levels of income inequality are associated with a lesser likelihood of marrying before first births. It appears that a hole in the middle of the job market \u2014 that is, a lack of middle-skill jobs \u2014 is what spurs couples to have children out of wedlock.<\/p>\n